Obama Wins Big

Yo! A state 96% White just vaulted Barack Obama into front-runner status for the US Presidency. Half the caucus-goers were participating for the first time; Obama got nearly 60% of the vote of people under age 30. This qualifies as a political phenomenon, one of the more exciting moments in US politics in my lifetime.

Just when I was going to give up on this place...

Despite the objectively low participation rates in the Iowa caucuses (higher than ever, but still less than 15% of those eligible), the process I saw tonight was real democracy and I was pleased. You have to admire seeing elementary school libraries overflowing with people willing to listen and vote publicly.

Disclosure: I more or less decided to vote for Obama after hearing him for the first time at the 2004 Democratic Convention; I just loved his appeal to national unity and mutual respect and felt (rather than merely thought) that he would be President sooner or later. I am so tired of being cynical that I want to believe in his authenticity, and I hope that isn't blinding me, but seeing Iowa gradually tilt to Obama over time has helped validate that gut feeling I had 4 years ago; if his unity theme was superficial, eventually it would show, especially in a "retail" politics state like Iowa. So, at the risk of cliche, what went down in Iowa the past 6-8 weeks might qualify as historic. If Obama is how he presents himself -- as something more than a set of positions and a political strategy -- he has real potential to be a global leader. This could all turn out to be just a flash in the pan, but I don't think so. This feels different.

PS: most of my political predictions over the years have been wrong, but I am happy to have been correct about Hillary peaking too early, wearing thin on voters "up close" and the Biden/Richardson/Dodd/Kucinich voters tilting to Obama once their first choice candidate fell by the wayside. If this last trend holds -- especially with Edwards, who I think will fade pretty quickly -- it gives Obama a clear path to the nomination. And yeah, I was talking up McCain 3 months ago, too. Speaking of McCain, his resurgent strength in New Hampshire is the Hillary camp's biggest hope -- that he'll siphon off independent voters (NH has an open primary) who otherwise might have gone for Obama, dampening the bandwagon effect. I don't think it will play that way, but we'll see in 5 days...