Yesterday Clinton's victories in Texas, Ohio, and Rhode Island ended Obama's winning streak at 12 consecutive contests and rejuvenated Clinton's struggling candidacy. However, Clinton still lags behind in delegates with 1,457 compared to Obama's 1,566. According to Newsweek's Johnathan Alter, "No matter now you cut it, Obama will almost certainly end the primaries with a pledged-delegate lead, courtesy of all those landslides in February." If Hillary doesn't win a lot more landslide victories in the upcoming contests the only way she can win would be to garner the support of superdelegates who may be loyal to her or her husband for whatever political reasons. The next major primary the Clinton campaign is focusing on is Pennsylvania (April 22). Until a clear Democratic nominee turns up, McCain enjoys a head start in fundraising and uniting the Republican party. Furthermore, despite a rocky history between Bush and McCain, Bush has finally come forth to formally endorse McCain.
McCain debated whether or not to visit the White House the day after securing his GOP nomination because, although he needs Bush's help with the party's conservative base, any ties to Bush could alienate moderate Republicans and independent voters. Compared to the Democratic race, McCain has the luxury of time to raise money, unite the Republican party, and widen his support base. In 2004 McCain campaigned for Bush's reelection, however, two weeks after Bush won the reelection McCain criticized his stance on climate change as "terribly disappointing." Although McCain agrees with some of Bush's stances, on the issue of Iraq, McCain is strongly against the strategy of former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. In fact, in February 2007 McCain stated, "I think that Donald Rumsfeld will go down in history as one of the worst secretaries of defense in history."
McCain's weak points include key groups of religious and conservative voters who voted for Huckabee.
Do you think Bush's low approval ratings will actually harm McCain's support? How effective will Bush's endorsement be: will it unite Republicans or push moderates more towards the Democratic/liberal side?
As for the Clinton/Obama race do you think Clinton will be able to win more delegates to catch up to Obama, or will she need to depend on swinging some superdelegate votes?
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
2 comments:
I don't think Bush's endorsement is going to have a huge negative effect on McCain's campaign. Bush's blessing seems more like a formality than anything. McCain's going to have to rely on his platform to unify his party anyways. I think if he can separate his ideas from Bush's, he'll still win independent voters.
As for Clinton and Obama, there's still a lot of time until April 22, so either can still get supporters.
Something that I think would be interesting to bring up is also the strategy of the Republicans to elect McCain. I heard that people in Texas because it was an open primary were urging Republicans to vote for Hilary to lengthen the Democratic race for nomination so that McCain can gain strength. There's also the idea that if Hilary is nominated that it would help McCain as more of the moderates would move towards McCain.
I think that even if McCain gets Bush's endorsement, he'll still remain a separate candidate. He has in the past and will continue to separate his policies from that of Bush.
Post a Comment