In the wake of the latest round of Democratic contests many people are asking, "Now what happens?" Clinton picked up critical wins in Ohio, Texas, and the Rhode Island primaries (the Texas caucuses are still too close to call). Although these wins do not put her ahead in the delegate count, they did make Obama lose some of his momentum. According to CNN.com Obama has 1,520 delegates and Clinton has 1,424. In order to secure the Democratic nomination a candidate must get 2,025 delegates. So what do all these numbers mean? Because the Democratic delegates are allocated proportionally, the race appears to be headed to the party's convention in August. The next big Democratic primary, Pennsylvania, is seven weeks away on April 22 where 158 delegates are at stake. According to Mary Frances Berry, former chairwoman of the US Civil Rights Commission, "There are not enough votes left among pledged delegates for anybody to win the nomination." If there's not enough votes left then how can anybody win?
The answer comes down to the superdelegates. There are nearly 800 superdelegates who are free to cast their vote for the candidate of their choice. Based on superdelegates who have publicized their preference, Clinton leads Obama 238-199. Although it will take substantial wins in almost all of the remaining contests for either candidate to get the 2,025 delegates, Nancy Pelosi believes, "There are still many voters unheard from yet, and I think that our candidates both have the capacity to inspire, to bring out a big vote that will hold us in good stead in November." She also believes the nominee will be decided before the Democratic convention in August, and that the prolonged campaign is actually good for the party as it offers Democrats a chance "to make a clear distinction" about their differences with Republicans in a variety of issues.
As the contest will unfold in the near future, another question remains: what should Democrats do with Michigan and Florida? Clinton won both states but no delegates were at stake because they were being punished for violating party rules by scheduling their primaries early. The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has already paid $18million for the primary in Florida, and if they have another primary that is not paid by the taxpayers the DNC will have to pay another substantial amount.
Do you agree with Pelosi that the prolonged Democratic contest is good for the Democratic party? Do you think a nominee will be decided on before the Democratic convention in August? What do you think should be done with Michigan and Florida? What are your thoughts about the election so far?
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6 comments:
What happens if neither gets the needed votes with the Superdelegates voting? Oddly enough, I think the prolonged Democrat contest is a good thing, because attention has almost completely fallen off of McCain, not that it was ever on him in the Bay Area of course, but I think it might just go to the back of everyones head and come summer he will have to start some stellar campaigning again. I guess currently I think the Florida problem is huge, a new vote would be absurd. Clinton won it once, why does she need to do it again and possibly have to lose (she could when more I guess though). So I guess we will have to wait and see, but it will be an interesting few months.
I know that its infeasible and an atrocious idea, but i like the idea of having a presidential election between just Clinton and Obama. We all know we're not going to pick a Republican anyway - why waste McCain's time?
I think that Democrats should make the primaries in Florida and Michigan count because of the close Democratic race and the millions of people who would not be heard. I don't think states should get punished and waste their money because they scheduled their primaries early..
I personally do not believe that this prolonged Democratic contest is good for the Democratic party. If you guys have noticed, Clinton and Obama have been fighting against each other like crazy. They've pointed each others' weak points and spread nasty advertisements. If this keeps up, then I believe that the Democratic party will be in a deep doodoo.
To Kristina:
Sure WE may not vote for a Republican but there are millions of Republicans in this nation who are willing to support their party by voting for McCain. Just because Bush was a terrible president won't sway the Republicans from voting for their party nominee.
Polls say that McCain may be a favorite over Hillary in the general election
I feel like Florida doesn't deserve a second chance. They were warned that if they moved their primary up their votes wouldn't count, and they did it anyway, so breaking the rules shouldn't be rewarded.
I also think that Clinton should really drop out now. According to the Washington Post: "McCain loses to both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in hypothetical tests of the general election. Among all adults, the poll showed Obama at 52 percent and McCain at 40 percent. Against Clinton, it was McCain 44 percent, Clinton 50 percent."
I do not at all think that this election is a waste of McCain's time. I still think that McCain has a great chance of winning the election--we haven't even gotten into debates yet between candidates. Who knows what could happen to the polls then? Hillary's "experience" is nothing when compared to McCain's. Also, McCain's policies are much more moderate than Bush.
I think that it's time for the Democratic party to pick a candidate and for someone to drop out of the race...at this point McCain is just picking up strength and organizing his strategy against democratic contenders, Clinton and Obama have to worry about each other first.
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