A blog about politics and economics inhabited by a rotating cast of seniors at Aragon High School in San Mateo, CA.
Monday, May 12, 2008
Can Israel Survive for Another 60 Years?
Here's an interesting article by the reliably provocative Christopher Hitchens that I'm sure some of our more regular commentators will find interesting.
This is a really interesting question and a question that I have never heard before. I don't think we ever stop to think whether or not any nation will exist in 60 or 100 or 200 years because of the times we live in. We never actually believe that a country could be conquered or changed dramatically these days. But the question poses whether Israel will be a Jewish state, not just a country with Jews. Quite frankly, I think that there is a legitimate possibility that it won't be a Jewish state in 60 years. Like the article said, Israel constantly absorbs and inflicts violence. There is always conflict involving Israel, which is absolutely true with the Palestinians. But I think that one day, Israel could fall into so much chaos that it will change. Whether that's the government changing itself, the Israelis changing their government, or outside forces changing Israel, it might not survive for another 60 years.
Firstly – good post. I look forward to this one. To get started, I want to address Paul’s comment and the distinction between what a Jewish state and a Jew dominated state is that the article brings up. Both of you claim that Israel is a Jewish state – and both of you feel that it will eventually become only a Jew dominated state. Last time I checked – these are one and then same. I mean, Israel is non-secular – its only connection to Judaism is the fact that it is predominantly Jewish. If someone could explain the difference, it would be much appreciated. Secondly, both of you think that Israel can’t exist and defend itself as a Jewish state – but only as a predominated Jewish state for several reasons (anti-Semitism, the fact that those defending Israel aren’t all Jewish, etc…). My question is that do you really think that Hezbollah and other terrorist groups will just accept Israel if it stops being a Jewish state (whatever that means again) – and is only filled with Jews? Last time I checked, these terrorist groups didn’t like Israel on the basis that it was filled with Jews. Thinking that changing the name or title of a place will trick these groups into embracing Israel is cutting them short (though I hate to say it). Most of these groups just don’t like Jews – if Israel wasn’t a Jewish state, I doubt we’d be having this problem – and Israel will still be a mostly Jewish. And lastly – this article is bunk (I hope I’m not displaying my biasness). Lets face it – Israel will always be the Jewish homeland. There is too much support in Israel for it – I don’t know how the author makes it seem that there is so much public dissent to Israel within Israel – I was unaware of this issue….. As far as loosing the West’s support – ridiculous for two reasons. One – America seems to have the silly notion that Israel needs America’s support. However, don’t fool yourself. Israel got through its beginning history with support from the USSR and Italy and France – from Europe. That is where they got their first air force – and the only reason they exist today. If America fails to support Israel, there are plenty of other countries waiting to pick up this strategic ally – and learn America’s military secrets stored in Israel. America isn’t such a good-hearted force. We choose allies because they help us. If America thinks Israel helps us, then other countries will too. Secondly, the neocon movement in America – while hurt from Iraq, is on the rebound, and is in no threat of going anywhere. Sorry for such a long post.
Just to be clear, I am not endorsing Hitchens' framing of the question. I hope that when Max writes "you two" he was referring to Mssrs. Slack and Hitchens.
The differences between a Jewish State and a country with many Jews are manifold. A Jewish State exists to be a homeland for Jews and as such adopts government policies that might not otherwise be rational, e.g. occupation of the West Bank obstensibly on the basis of biblical phrases.
"its only connection to Judaism is the fact that it is predominantly Jewish."
Historically speaking, this is dubious. Zionism was rooted both in being a defense against anti-Semitism AND biblical prophesy about this particular piece of territory and all its holy sites. The Israeli state is now not strictly secular even though many political issues are framed in secular terms. For example, Israel funds Jewish religious schools. I believe its Constitution cites Judaism. Israel as a State (and not just Israelis as people) regard Jerusalem in a vastly different way because of the Wailing Wall than it would otherwise.
If Israel's only connection to Judaism as a religion is the demography of its population, it is well on its way to losing its status as a Jewish homeland -- the Arab, non-Jewish, Israeli citizen part of the population is growing much faster than the Jewish Israeli part. Max's quote above is a major part of Hitchens' argument; if the State is just a State and not an officially (and necessarily) a Jewish State, in 60 years the Israeli nation may not be distinctly Jewish the way it is now. There are political parties in Israel that fear this outcome and pressure the government to frame policy as religiously necessary and not in secular terms. These parties are small but not without their influence as part of a broader Likud coalition, roughly similar to "Focus on the Family" or "the Moral Majority" only a full fledged party and not an interest group.
"If America fails to support Israel, there are plenty of other countries waiting to pick up this strategic ally"
This is downright delusional. Name one such country! Israel isn't a strategic ally of ours so much as a friend. On the basis of pure strategy, our relationship is questionable. Moreover, public opinion around the world is so anti-Israel that it is hard to imagine a shift toward Israel by other countries even if it did make strategic sense, unless conditions change considerably.
Having said all that, I think Max is correct, it is hard to imagine Israel becoming a multicultural, pluralistic democracy with a plurality of people who just happen to be Jewish unless Islam has a secular reformation that makes religious identity a more individual, less communal experience. In other words, I don't see Israeli Jews, even secular ones, signing onto a process that makes them vulnerable. (Then again, South Africa did morph considerably from an all White government to something else entirely.)
The more unnerving scenario is Israel gradually losing its ongoing slow burning war with the Palestinians to the point where it has to make a major change. And on this, let's admit it: Israel is not winning, and hasn't been since the invasion of Lebanon in 1982. 60 more years of attrition and uneven population growth, and things could be very, very different.
Firstly - I was referring to Paul and the author - not to you Mr. Silton. Having said that, I do strongly disagree wtih several things that you said. To me, the difference between Israel existing as a Jewish State and a mostly Jewish State still makes no difference. As long as Israel exists as a mostly Jewish State, it will be held in the eyes of most as a Jewish State - I find it hard to believe the fact that Israel will ever stop existing as the beacon of hope and comfort for Jews throughout the world. As far as a growing Arab population - this is also contributed to the growing territory in many respects. While I don't argue that the Jewish population is growing faster than the Arab population, I urge you to take a look at where and why - I doubt the figures look as daunting as they do otherwise. Also - lets discuss this gradual dwindling flame of Israel that you seem to portray in your ending thoughts. Firstly - "Israel is not winning...since 1982." I think that you and I, Mr. Silton, have a very different definition of winning. While in American Wars, winning is judged mostly by public opinion and numbers, for Israel, it is judged solely by surviving - an issue that America and Americans (including you and me) hardly every think about. In that respect, I greatly disagree that Israel is a dwindling flame that is consistently loosing and will eventually buckle under the pressure. While the undoubtedly anti-Israel media and stories portrays Israel to have been beaten down (which I assume is your only opportunity to glimpse at Israeli’s and their sentiments) , I would argue, having seen myself, family, and friends go to or soon go to Israel, that Israel has a spirit that very few people who have not visited can realize. As long as Israel survives, it will never compromise it’s survival – even after 60 years, Israel will fight to survive – it simply has to – a fact that I don’t think many people appreciate. I pose the same question that you did now but to another audience – in 60 years, after Israel has survived for over 120 years, as has shown that it will not be defeated, will terrorists continue to attack? Or will they realize they can’t win, and will settle with a two-solution or other solution bound to appear in the next couple of decades? And lastly, I return the favor of calling your argument that Israel needs American support as “downright delusional.” Let face it – with decades of American military secrets, you can’t image any country befriending Israel? Come on – I’m sure that you’ve heard the story of Golda – she has her hand on the atomic bomb control to send off Israel’s nukes because America hasn’t sent over enough military support – and when Golda tells America this, they quickly send Israel some choppers or something – so that Israel doesn’t use it’s nukes. America won’t and can’t stop it’s support Israel, AIPAC remains one of the top lobby organizations, the neocon movement is still strong, and America will never as Israel’s ally – they have too many similarities.
Hey ok well I'm not going to write an essay like Max this time, but I'd like to clarify one statement that Max and Silton have been going through for awhile, and one that I do think does need to change. It's about Israel being a Jewish State or a State with Jews. As of right now, Israel is a Jewish State. And while Mr. Silton and Max both alluded to Israel's constitution, I don't think either of them were quite correct. While Israel does have a basic code of laws (taken mostly from the English version) the basis of Israeli Law is in the Torah. When there is a country court case and the basic Israeli law does not account for all parts of the issue, the judges actually look into the bible and see what it says. While Israel is a democratic state, I still believe that there are some major kinks to be worked out as far as the synagogue and state divide must become much thicker. On one hand, it is powerful to have a country that sleeps on the Sabbath and where no bread is anywhere to be found on Passover--it gives the country a true culture. However, even many Jewish Israelis resent this way of life as the ultra-orthodox have imposed many of its policies upon the rest of the Israelis, some of the examples being the closing of trains on the Sabbath and the fine paid to those who are selling bread on the holiday of Passover. Israel needs to write an official constitution, and a truly secular one at that. It is an issue for Jewish Israelis in addition to Palestinians and others.
On other issues I agree with Mr. Silton that the US is Israel's biggest ally and agree with Max that the Palestinians will want the Jews out even if the name of the country ever changed from "Israel" to "Palestine."
And as far as the next 60 years, here's how I see it: Israel was one of the only countries established by diplomatic means, as it was approved by the UN even before the Israelis fought for the land. It was conquered through documents, not by force. The war has been one of resistance. The question is whether or not the rest of the world will get sick of violence from Palestinians and surrounding countries and just give up on the idea of Israel. Yes it may make it easier for the UN for a little bit, but I think that it's nice to have at least one democracy in the area. And I would be truly sad if the day came that Israel was taken over, not only for the reason that I support Israel, but that it will be the day that happened because the world flaked out from backing a democratic country because it gave into acts of terrorism.
6 comments:
This is a really interesting question and a question that I have never heard before. I don't think we ever stop to think whether or not any nation will exist in 60 or 100 or 200 years because of the times we live in. We never actually believe that a country could be conquered or changed dramatically these days. But the question poses whether Israel will be a Jewish state, not just a country with Jews. Quite frankly, I think that there is a legitimate possibility that it won't be a Jewish state in 60 years. Like the article said, Israel constantly absorbs and inflicts violence. There is always conflict involving Israel, which is absolutely true with the Palestinians. But I think that one day, Israel could fall into so much chaos that it will change. Whether that's the government changing itself, the Israelis changing their government, or outside forces changing Israel, it might not survive for another 60 years.
Can someone put up a blog about the recent earthquake in China?
I believe that it is of dire concern and it would be great to shed some light on it...
Firstly – good post. I look forward to this one.
To get started, I want to address Paul’s comment and the distinction between what a Jewish state and a Jew dominated state is that the article brings up. Both of you claim that Israel is a Jewish state – and both of you feel that it will eventually become only a Jew dominated state. Last time I checked – these are one and then same. I mean, Israel is non-secular – its only connection to Judaism is the fact that it is predominantly Jewish. If someone could explain the difference, it would be much appreciated.
Secondly, both of you think that Israel can’t exist and defend itself as a Jewish state – but only as a predominated Jewish state for several reasons (anti-Semitism, the fact that those defending Israel aren’t all Jewish, etc…). My question is that do you really think that Hezbollah and other terrorist groups will just accept Israel if it stops being a Jewish state (whatever that means again) – and is only filled with Jews? Last time I checked, these terrorist groups didn’t like Israel on the basis that it was filled with Jews. Thinking that changing the name or title of a place will trick these groups into embracing Israel is cutting them short (though I hate to say it). Most of these groups just don’t like Jews – if Israel wasn’t a Jewish state, I doubt we’d be having this problem – and Israel will still be a mostly Jewish.
And lastly – this article is bunk (I hope I’m not displaying my biasness). Lets face it – Israel will always be the Jewish homeland. There is too much support in Israel for it – I don’t know how the author makes it seem that there is so much public dissent to Israel within Israel – I was unaware of this issue….. As far as loosing the West’s support – ridiculous for two reasons. One – America seems to have the silly notion that Israel needs America’s support. However, don’t fool yourself. Israel got through its beginning history with support from the USSR and Italy and France – from Europe. That is where they got their first air force – and the only reason they exist today. If America fails to support Israel, there are plenty of other countries waiting to pick up this strategic ally – and learn America’s military secrets stored in Israel. America isn’t such a good-hearted force. We choose allies because they help us. If America thinks Israel helps us, then other countries will too. Secondly, the neocon movement in America – while hurt from Iraq, is on the rebound, and is in no threat of going anywhere.
Sorry for such a long post.
Just to be clear, I am not endorsing Hitchens' framing of the question. I hope that when Max writes "you two" he was referring to Mssrs. Slack and Hitchens.
The differences between a Jewish State and a country with many Jews are manifold. A Jewish State exists to be a homeland for Jews and as such adopts government policies that might not otherwise be rational, e.g. occupation of the West Bank obstensibly on the basis of biblical phrases.
"its only connection to Judaism is the fact that it is predominantly Jewish."
Historically speaking, this is dubious. Zionism was rooted both in being a defense against anti-Semitism AND biblical prophesy about this particular piece of territory and all its holy sites. The Israeli state is now not strictly secular even though many political issues are framed in secular terms. For example, Israel funds Jewish religious schools. I believe its Constitution cites Judaism. Israel as a State (and not just Israelis as people) regard Jerusalem in a vastly different way because of the Wailing Wall than it would otherwise.
If Israel's only connection to Judaism as a religion is the demography of its population, it is well on its way to losing its status as a Jewish homeland -- the Arab, non-Jewish, Israeli citizen part of the population is growing much faster than the Jewish Israeli part. Max's quote above is a major part of Hitchens' argument; if the State is just a State and not an officially (and necessarily) a Jewish State, in 60 years the Israeli nation may not be distinctly Jewish the way it is now. There are political parties in Israel that fear this outcome and pressure the government to frame policy as religiously necessary and not in secular terms. These parties are small but not without their influence as part of a broader Likud coalition, roughly similar to "Focus on the Family" or "the Moral Majority" only a full fledged party and not an interest group.
"If America fails to support Israel, there are plenty of other countries waiting to pick up this strategic ally"
This is downright delusional. Name one such country! Israel isn't a strategic ally of ours so much as a friend. On the basis of pure strategy, our relationship is questionable. Moreover, public opinion around the world is so anti-Israel that it is hard to imagine a shift toward Israel by other countries even if it did make strategic sense, unless conditions change considerably.
Having said all that, I think Max is correct, it is hard to imagine Israel becoming a multicultural, pluralistic democracy with a plurality of people who just happen to be Jewish unless Islam has a secular reformation that makes religious identity a more individual, less communal experience. In other words, I don't see Israeli Jews, even secular ones, signing onto a process that makes them vulnerable. (Then again, South Africa did morph considerably from an all White government to something else entirely.)
The more unnerving scenario is Israel gradually losing its ongoing slow burning war with the Palestinians to the point where it has to make a major change. And on this, let's admit it: Israel is not winning, and hasn't been since the invasion of Lebanon in 1982. 60 more years of attrition and uneven population growth, and things could be very, very different.
Firstly - I was referring to Paul and the author - not to you Mr. Silton.
Having said that, I do strongly disagree wtih several things that you said. To me, the difference between Israel existing as a Jewish State and a mostly Jewish State still makes no difference. As long as Israel exists as a mostly Jewish State, it will be held in the eyes of most as a Jewish State - I find it hard to believe the fact that Israel will ever stop existing as the beacon of hope and comfort for Jews throughout the world.
As far as a growing Arab population - this is also contributed to the growing territory in many respects. While I don't argue that the Jewish population is growing faster than the Arab population, I urge you to take a look at where and why - I doubt the figures look as daunting as they do otherwise.
Also - lets discuss this gradual dwindling flame of Israel that you seem to portray in your ending thoughts.
Firstly - "Israel is not winning...since 1982." I think
that you and I, Mr. Silton, have a very different definition of winning. While in American Wars, winning is judged mostly by public opinion and numbers, for Israel, it is judged solely by surviving - an issue that America and Americans (including you and me) hardly every think about. In that respect, I greatly disagree that Israel is a dwindling flame that is consistently loosing and will eventually buckle under the pressure. While the undoubtedly anti-Israel media and stories portrays Israel to have been beaten down (which I assume is your only opportunity to glimpse at Israeli’s and their sentiments) , I would argue, having seen myself, family, and friends go to or soon go to Israel, that Israel has a spirit that very few people who have not visited can realize. As long as Israel survives, it will never compromise it’s survival – even after 60 years, Israel will fight to survive – it simply has to – a fact that I don’t think many people appreciate. I pose the same question that you did now but to another audience – in 60 years, after Israel has survived for over 120 years, as has shown that it will not be defeated, will terrorists continue to attack? Or will they realize they can’t win, and will settle with a two-solution or other solution bound to appear in the next couple of decades?
And lastly, I return the favor of calling your argument that Israel needs American support as “downright delusional.” Let face it – with decades of American military secrets, you can’t image any country befriending Israel? Come on – I’m sure that you’ve heard the story of Golda – she has her hand on the atomic bomb control to send off Israel’s nukes because America hasn’t sent over enough military support – and when Golda tells America this, they quickly send Israel some choppers or something – so that Israel doesn’t use it’s nukes. America won’t and can’t stop it’s support Israel, AIPAC remains one of the top lobby organizations, the neocon movement is still strong, and America will never as Israel’s ally – they have too many similarities.
Hey ok well I'm not going to write an essay like Max this time, but I'd like to clarify one statement that Max and Silton have been going through for awhile, and one that I do think does need to change. It's about Israel being a Jewish State or a State with Jews.
As of right now, Israel is a Jewish State. And while Mr. Silton and Max both alluded to Israel's constitution, I don't think either of them were quite correct. While Israel does have a basic code of laws (taken mostly from the English version) the basis of Israeli Law is in the Torah. When there is a country court case and the basic Israeli law does not account for all parts of the issue, the judges actually look into the bible and see what it says.
While Israel is a democratic state, I still believe that there are some major kinks to be worked out as far as the synagogue and state divide must become much thicker. On one hand, it is powerful to have a country that sleeps on the Sabbath and where no bread is anywhere to be found on Passover--it gives the country a true culture. However, even many Jewish Israelis resent this way of life as the ultra-orthodox have imposed many of its policies upon the rest of the Israelis, some of the examples being the closing of trains on the Sabbath and the fine paid to those who are selling bread on the holiday of Passover.
Israel needs to write an official constitution, and a truly secular one at that. It is an issue for Jewish Israelis in addition to Palestinians and others.
On other issues I agree with Mr. Silton that the US is Israel's biggest ally and agree with Max that the Palestinians will want the Jews out even if the name of the country ever changed from "Israel" to "Palestine."
And as far as the next 60 years, here's how I see it: Israel was one of the only countries established by diplomatic means, as it was approved by the UN even before the Israelis fought for the land. It was conquered through documents, not by force. The war has been one of resistance. The question is whether or not the rest of the world will get sick of violence from Palestinians and surrounding countries and just give up on the idea of Israel. Yes it may make it easier for the UN for a little bit, but I think that it's nice to have at least one democracy in the area. And I would be truly sad if the day came that Israel was taken over, not only for the reason that I support Israel, but that it will be the day that happened because the world flaked out from backing a democratic country because it gave into acts of terrorism.
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