California Primaries Rise in Significance

Now that Obama and Huckabee have won the Iowa caucuses, California's role in the primaries has become more important. Over the last few elections, the California primaries have been pushed from March 7 in 2000 to March 2 in 2004 to a huge jump to February 5 in 2008.

As we learned in class, earlier primaries mean a bigger impact on the overall primary election. However, analysts say that California's impact can be more decisively seen after New Hampshire's primary--if a candidate from either side wins both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, California will be less relevant as the race would already be lopsided. If both primaries are split between two winners, there will be more incentive to win California and thus for candidates to cater to California voter's interests.

Any speculations on who will win California?