A poll released yesterday by CNN/Opinion Research Corp. shows that Republican will have a "tough general election." To simlify the results:
Clinton and Obama have more than 50% of the votes if they're matched up head-to-head with either Romney, Giuliani, or Huckabee. If they're matched up with McCain, they're basically even.
Results:---- Will vote(if nominated) -------Will consider--------Will not vote for
Clinton --------------37%-------------------------19%
Obama --------------30%
McCain--------------22%-------------------------35%
Romney-------------13% --------------------------------------------------62%
Giuliani --------------------------------------------------------------------55%
Huckabee------------------------------------------------------------------52%
-----------------Favorable----------Unfavorable
McCain------------54%----------------29%
Giuliani------------46%----------------39%
Huckabee--------- 38%----------------30%
-Mccain is the only candidate close to Obama in the Favorable/Unfavorable numbers. Obama's number weren't given in this poll. McCain is also only Republican with more than 50% approval.
Notes: Telephone survey of about 1000 Americans, 850 of whom were registered voters, the results have a margin of error of plus/minus about 3%.
This poll doesn't provide a lot of new information, except that even though Romney's leading the GOP in number of delegates, he'll need a pretty big comeback to not only win the nomination, but the general election as well. McCain appears to have a significant advantage over Huckabee. This poll once again shows the Democrats advantage in the general election. I'd be interested to see the results of this same poll after South Carolina.
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2 comments:
As we've seen in the New Hampshire polls, no one can rely on polls too much, especially since this poll is only based on 1000 people. However, ever since his win in New Hampshire, McCain has been gaining popularity and media attention. I think this new exposure to people will increase his popularity and thus, more people might vote for him. I think many people, whether Republican or Democratic, would vote for McCain because he is the most liberal and open-minded of the Republicans. Also, I think this poll shows how much catching up Romney has to do, and only puts more pressure on him to win Michigan to keep up his momentum. If his momentum fails, then he would be a lost cause. Overall, I think that the polls only show how far behind the losers are, but doesn’t give an accurate perception of who is in the lead on the Democratic side because it is still a close call.
1000 people is more than enough sample size for a poll. Unless there are a lot of people who are somehow undecided I think these numbers are close to the truth.
I agree though that this poll doesn't say much about who is in the lead on the Democratic side, but that's simply because of the way it is constructed.
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