Obama passes Clinton

Although at the beginning of the race, many saw Hillary as the "inevitable nominee" for the Democrats, it seems as if this may not be the case. It seems that, not only did Obama win the votes of his previous supporters (specifically African Americans), but he also won a significant amount of women as well. Even among white voters, where Obama has struggled to keep up with Clinton, Obama nearly beat Clinton to a draw. Just recently, in Maryland, Virginia, and D.C., Obama was able to win by wide margins. This push brought him to the head of the Democratic race as Clinton must now struggle to catch up. If people use this string of victories for Obama, it may end up with a bandwagon effect, possibly leading to a clear winner of the Democratic primary. However, if Obama and Clinton stay as close as they currently are (1223 Obama to 1198 Clinton), they may end up with no decisive winner.

Obama sweeps Maryland, Virginia, and D.C.

On superdelegates

Or, as they are officially known, "unpledged delgates" or PLEOs-Party Leaders and Elected Officials. Both parties have them, but for whatever reason, the term "superdelegate" has stuck only to the Democrats. You've probably read something about them in some kind of news source, but for those who haven't, they are delegates to each party's national convention who can vote for any candidate they wish regardless of the voting in their state (or any other state). McCain's large lead on the Republican side has made them a non-issue, but because Clinton and Obama are so close, there has been a lot of speculation that they could end up deciding the Democratic nomination. Also, superdelegates compose about 20% of the Dems' total and less than 10% of the Republican convention voters.

According to Democratic party rules, the following people are superdelegates:

The individuals recognized as members of the DNC (as set forth in Article Three, Sections 2 and 3 of the Charter of the Democratic Party of the United States); and,
The Democratic President and the Democratic Vice President of the United States, if applicable; and,
All Democratic members of the United States House of Representatives and all Democratic members of the United States Senate; and,
The Democratic Governor, if applicable; and,
All former Democratic Presidents, all former Democratic Vice Presidents, all former Democratic Leaders of the U.S. Senate, all former Democratic Speakers of the U.S. House of Representatives and Democratic Minority Leaders, as applicable, and all former Chairs of the Democratic National Committee.

Superdelegates were created in the 80's in response to party leaders feeling a loss of control after the upswing in primaries; however, they never really worked out that way, as no recent candidate has won a nomination without winning most of the primaries. (Howard Dean was a superdelegate favorite...) Many say that if the superdelegates decide the nominee, it will be undemocratic and the party voters will be dissatisfied. Of course, the counterargument is that party leaders should have some say-it's their party, after all. As of now Clinton has a fairly good lead among superdelegates, but that could always change-there are no official pledges, and they can change their minds at any time. No matter what happens, the Democratic National Convention will probably end up as more than a four-day infomercial...

So, what's next?

Now that all the hype over Super-Duper-Ultra-Mega-Hyper Tuesday (or something like that), people are now realizing that, with no winner yet decided in either party, there will be more primaries and caucuses to come. But because primaries after early February have rarely mattered recently, few know exactly what the calendar looks like. Without further ado, here is a preview of some of the upcoming primaries...

Democrats
2/9
Louisiana primary: 56 delegates
Nebraska caucus: 16 delegates (8 to be chosen 6/28)
Virgin Islands caucus: 6 delegates with 1/2 vote each
Washington caucus: 78 delegates
2/10
Maine caucus: 24 delegates
2/12
DC primary: 15 delegates (they have 23 unpledged superdelegates)
Maryland primary: 70 delegates
Virginia primary: 83 delegates

Republicans
2/9
Louisiana primary: 20 delegates (24 to be chosen at 2/16 caucus)
Washington caucus: 18 delegates (19 to be chosen at 2/19 primary)
Kansas caucus: 36 delegates
2/12
DC primary: 16 delegates
Maryland primary: 34 delegates
Virginia primary: 63 delegates
2/16
Guam caucus: 6 delegates
Louisiana caucus: 24 delegates (see above)

In any case, however, unless some candidate for either party sweeps nearly all of these elections, they will decide very little and it will be a long, hard race.

The Iowa Effect...

I just came across this cartoon and thought it was amusing and fairly accurate considering all the weight that is put upon the first primaries. Although I think that it would probably be more accurate to consider the president determined after the second state at least...

California Primaries Rise in Significance

Now that Obama and Huckabee have won the Iowa caucuses, California's role in the primaries has become more important. Over the last few elections, the California primaries have been pushed from March 7 in 2000 to March 2 in 2004 to a huge jump to February 5 in 2008.

As we learned in class, earlier primaries mean a bigger impact on the overall primary election. However, analysts say that California's impact can be more decisively seen after New Hampshire's primary--if a candidate from either side wins both the Iowa and New Hampshire primaries, California will be less relevant as the race would already be lopsided. If both primaries are split between two winners, there will be more incentive to win California and thus for candidates to cater to California voter's interests.

Any speculations on who will win California?

Republicans are still searching for a candidate

With the Iowa caucus just two weeks away, the presidential race is clearly heating up. But for the first time in half of a century, no vice president or incumbent is running. As the Democratic race is continuing to tighten, the Republican race is constantly changing with no clear winner in view.
According to a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney are tied for first place with 20% (which shows Giuliani's great fall from his original 10% advantage over Romney just six weeks ago due to negative press regarding his personal life and business transactions). Mike Huckabee follows with 17%, which is not much less considering that margin of error is 3.1% and in early november he only had a single digit percentage of support. Following Huckabee is John McCain with 14% and then Fred Thompson at 11%.
However, because there is no front runner, the race is becoming more unpredictable. For example, despite Romney's higher ranking in the polls, he has fallen behind Huckabee in the Iowa nominating contest.
While this confusion may easily be a result of Bush's current low approval rating, it may also be a result of the current coalitions that are known to define the Republican party finally not being able to work together any more. While the party combining social, economical, and foreigh policy conservatives may have been able to function properly under Reagan, it is apparent that it no longer can.
This next election will no doubt be a turning point in American politics. But it may be moreso than we are expecting. There is so much interparty conflict within the Republican party that maybe a split by one of the leading coalitions could happen changing the Republican party as we know it. Although this would be a huge ordeal, it seems to be more and more possible as this election plays out.

Primaries

The primaries are beginning to heat up.
Having watched them in our own class and created boardgames based around them, I don't feel the need to explain them.

Sen. Barack Obama has been deemed an "impatient" politician who will move legislation faster by changing the system.
He also claims to cut off all "strings" from lobbyists.
http://www.foxnews.com/wires/2007Nov06/0,4670,Obama,00.html


While these two statements would be ideal, how can he guarantee to follow through with them?

Already in our class elections, interest groups have become important.


Hasn't every running candidate promised to make things move faster, or change the status quo?

If Sen. Barack Obama does manage to follow through with these promises, does he stand a chance against Sen. Hilary Clinton, let alone the republican candidate?

Senator Hilary Clinton has been accused of playing the gender card as a shield against her opponents (http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/02/us/politics/02cnd-clinton.html?hp) while Senator Barack Obama is enduring the correlation that has been (at first accidentally) drawn between "Obama" and "Osama" (http://mediamatters.org/items/200507120008).

These attacks are underhanded and irrelevant to policies, but will Clinton and Obama's gender and race respectively affect the outcome of the primaries or general election?

For each, how do you predict it will be positive or negative?

Does the emphasis on their gender and race demonstrate the increased highlight on person-oriented politics as opposed to emphasis on policies?